Renewing Armenia

Right now the Armenian-American community, and much of the Armenian diaspora in general, is up in arms over the new protocols in the works between the Armenian and Turkish governments.  The history between the Armenians and Turks is a tortured one.  My grandmother is an Armenian genocide survivor, and this is a chapter of history that unfortunately the Turks have successfully whitewashed.  I do question the protocols' fairness between two nations, one in a precarious economic state with a population of about 3 million, the other, an emerging powerhouse  with abundant resources for its 71 million citizens. 

 

One result of the deal would establish a commission to "study" the 1915-1920 genocide.  Armenian-Americans fear this will just be a phony concession, while Turkish-Americans are upset that the issue is discussed in the first place.  Armenian-Americans are livid that eastern Turkey, once part of Armenia, will be relinquished to Turkey once and for all.  Other issues are outside of Armenians' control; perhaps an apology and recognition of the genocide could beenough to assuage Armenians' anger towards their longtime nemesis, but the only Armenians who appear to benefit from the protocols are the politicians who sold out their nation and people.

 

I understand Armenian-Americans' distress and anger.  The word on the street is that the diaspora smells a rat--Armenian politicians selling out their nation for bribes and other promises.  That could very well be true--and considering my two visits to Armenia and the corruption I saw endemic throughout its society, such a nefarious deal would hardly be a shock.  Protests have been organized from New York to Glendale (and of course, in Beirut, Europe, and even Yerevan), and last weekend, Armenian-Americans showed up to protest at the Beverly Hills hotel where Armenia's president Serzh Sarkisian is feted while he visits the USA.  Mr. Sarkisian did nothing to disprove he's selling out to the Turkish government, dismissing the 12,000 who protested as "the minority."

 

What started as shouts of dismay from the diaspora has spread within the country, to which the Sarkisian posse has reacted by outlawing any protest or dissent against the protocols.  Now the historic hostility surrounding the country's borders is festering within its government.  Armenia is a country bordered by an unstable Georgia to the north, hostile Azerbaijan to the east, and international pariah Iran to the south.  Then there is the border to the west, where goods and services could easily be exchanged . . . and the opportunity for markets (read Europe) beyond Turkey's borders.  Some argue that the only lifeline that kept Armenia functioning was the deep pockets of the diaspora, most of which are American.

 

Nevertheless, I always questioned Armenian-Americans' generosity to Armenia:  kind-hearted intentions, I'm sure, but the diaspora treated Armenia like a charity case.  The long road to the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh cost millions of dollars--and could be bombed at any point.  A huge church marking Armenian Christianity's 1700th anniversary absorbed many resources, and quite frankly, is an eyesore.  I always receive emails pleading for charitable contribution to Armenian causes, but like we always say, work and investment are the best social welfare programs around.

 

Meanwhile, Armenia has always struggled with a lack of reliable energy sources.  Currently about 80% of Armenia's energy is under Russian control.  The blockade during the war with Azerbaijan in the early 1990s cut off any oil or natural gas to the young fledgling nation.  There is a natural gas pipeline that partially goes through Armenia, but the troubles in Georgia could shut that off any moment.  Its one nuclear plant, Metsamor, has many design flaws, and while it currently provides over 40% of the nation's electricity needs (for a while Armenia was actually an energy exporter), a new expensive nuclear plant is in progress to replace the former, which was built in 1979.  Hydroelectricity supplies about one-third of the nation's needs, with a price paid by its ecosystems.  One area affected is  Lake Sevan, which had suffered under old Soviet planning.  Despite the government's promise to funnel more water, this lake has yet to be replenished.

 

Renewable energy offers some promise to Armenia.  Currently there is only one wind farm in the Lori region, but there is even more wind potential, and a larger wind farm is currently underway with Iranian cooperation.  Solar and geothermal power also have relatively large untapped potential, but the web site extolling such opportunity has not been updated since 2007.

 

My point in bringing up renewable energy is that if the Armenian diaspora had wanted Armenia to be strong and stand alone, better avenues of investment could have been followed.  Renewable energy sources, while expensive, would have been more reliable that fossil-based sources--and even more cost effective, for a country surrounded with hostile and unstable neighbors.  A solid energy infrastructure could have engendered other opportunities for this highly educated population, such as in IT outsourcing or manufacturing . . . sectors that have struggled at best.  The cries of a Soviet legacy ring hallow with me, because the Baltic nations until the recent economic meltdown had rebounded impressively; Estonia, in fact, has been lauded by many economists for having the most free economy in the world.

 

After a generation of corrupt leadership and spotty foreign investment, many fear Armenia may be sold out.  We don't know if events in Armenia would have evolved differently had there been wiser, more accountable investment.  It's a tragedy this struggling country has reached a dangerous tipping point; who knows if this new tragedy could have been avoided, but for its citizens, a smarter energy policy would not have hurt.